From 2008, the individual companies could choose to handle the preparation of their industrial and commercial yearly check by themselves. This change made the staffs stressful. In fact, because these individual companies can do the preparation working (inputting basic companies’ information into on-line system), the business of association is serious affected. Indeed, one direct benefit of these companies is that they could save a sum of administrative fees which based on these companies’ registered capital from RMB 50 to 2000 Yuan, if they do these preparations by themselves without any middleman (the association staffs).
Before the on-line system was introduced, the leaders predicted the business would be reduced. Therefore, the leaders took some measures to train their staffs and organized some training courses to individual companies, in order to publicize their advantages to do the yearly-check. Besides, the leaders hoped to assert their sincerity by these activities. In fact, the organization was transferring its working style to the customer-centered.
Although the leaders have predicted some negative impacts would happen, and prepared some relevant measures in advance, the effect was quite a little. In details, due to the government-oriented working style for many years, the individual companies have a negative feedback on the association. As a consequence, the short-term change can not quickly change people’s permanent mind.
In conclusion, the leaders had considered the scenario before the new on-line system was introduced. But, the measures have not been in effect. Although the leaders had a scenario, they still neglected one key point-acting time. In details, changing people’s fixed views need a long period. In my organization, the leaders did not consider the organization’s future in a systematical perspective. Therefore, the scenario is not successful. However, it needs a long time to be accepted by individuals. In addition, it is a process of continuously modulating by organization. However, if the organization can keep the customer-oriented working style, the feeling of distrust by customers will gradually be reduced.
What I want to explore is our e-government’s future aspect through scenario planning and then incorporate into our government. The main purpose scenario planning for government generally I think is change, we would argue that the outcomes of this intervention are indicative of changed mindsets and behaviors derived specifically from the nature of the self-directed learning process of scenario development, even within an organization that was already committed to change, and to internally generated solutions to externally focused problems. We consider, however, that this commitment lacked an effective vehicle for investigation and understanding of the range of complexities and ambiguities that were to be found within the driving forces for change. The scenario process enabled the participants to surface and share their individual perceptions, beliefs, values, concerns, etc., to structure these thematically, without reduction and exclusion and to make different sets of sense of the ambiguities, the conflicts and contradictions, developing a shared framework within which to see different viewpoints.
My future scenario planning should analysis supports the use of scenario planning as a tool for establishing the limits of possibility and plausibility for ‘the future’, understanding the perceived causal relationships and exploring the limits of the critical uncertainties within the external environment prior to determination of options. As such, scenario planning is a process-oriented tool that promotes dissenting opinion, encourages divergent thinking and does not apply selection and exclusion in search of an ultimate reason, a unity of beliefs and values within the organization. Rather, it provides a means of generating shared, causally generated understanding of plausible futures, some of which may be unfavorable to the organization and its current strategic intent.
According to Peterson,Cumming and Carpenter, “Scenario planning is a systemic method for thinking creatively about possible complex and uncertain futures.”(2003) Therefore，scenario planning does not means there is the only plan to deal with any possibilities and situations，instead， it means as many as complex and changing possibilities should be taken into consideration before the plans and solutions are set up. In new oriental school, as I have stated in class, the greatest challenge in front of us is the competition of investment. In other words, before 2006, the competition of training companies was focused on the quality of teachers and their courses. However, after New Oriental School was firstly listed in the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), the competition has also been transferred to the amount of investment. To make profit and to attract more investment are the biggest and even the only aims of a company, especially a listed company. However, in an educational organization, a great number of staff, including our CEO, do not take materialism as their first aim in lives. Also, for an educational organization, the quality of courses is still the greatest attraction to students. Therefore, under this scenario, several contradictions are obvious: 1.The desire of staff and the aim of the company 2.Long-term and short-term profit 3.The speed of expanding and the quality of teachers and courses 4.The idealism which enables the company to develop so fast and the reality that the company has to face How to balance all the aspects needs leaders’ wisdom and deep consideration and I will also state my opinions in my individual assignment in details. But the key point is that the aim and culture of the company should be made clear first. In other words, why the company exists in mainland China is the first and most important question worthy consideration. Reference: Garry D. Peterson, Graeme S. Cumming, Stephen R. Carpenter. The Journal of the Society for Conservation Biology, Vol. 17, No. 2. (2003), pp. 358-366. --------By Jacqueline YANG
From 2008, the individual companies could choose to handle the preparation of their industrial and commercial yearly check by themselves. This change made the staffs stressful. In fact, because these individual companies can do the preparation working (inputting basic companies’ information into on-line system), the business of association is serious affected. Indeed, one direct benefit of these companies is that they could save a sum of administrative fees which based on these companies’ registered capital from RMB 50 to 2000 Yuan, if they do these preparations by themselves without any middleman (the association staffs).
ReplyDeleteBefore the on-line system was introduced, the leaders predicted the business would be reduced. Therefore, the leaders took some measures to train their staffs and organized some training courses to individual companies, in order to publicize their advantages to do the yearly-check. Besides, the leaders hoped to assert their sincerity by these activities. In fact, the organization was transferring its working style to the customer-centered.
Although the leaders have predicted some negative impacts would happen, and prepared some relevant measures in advance, the effect was quite a little. In details, due to the government-oriented working style for many years, the individual companies have a negative feedback on the association. As a consequence, the short-term change can not quickly change people’s permanent mind.
In conclusion, the leaders had considered the scenario before the new on-line system was introduced. But, the measures have not been in effect. Although the leaders had a scenario, they still neglected one key point-acting time. In details, changing people’s fixed views need a long period. In my organization, the leaders did not consider the organization’s future in a systematical perspective. Therefore, the scenario is not successful. However, it needs a long time to be accepted by individuals. In addition, it is a process of continuously modulating by organization. However, if the organization can keep the customer-oriented working style, the feeling of distrust by customers will gradually be reduced.
What I want to explore is our e-government’s future aspect through scenario planning and then incorporate into our government. The main purpose scenario planning for government generally I think is change, we would argue that the outcomes of this intervention are indicative of changed mindsets and behaviors derived specifically from the nature of the self-directed learning process of scenario development, even within an organization that was already committed to change, and to internally generated solutions to externally focused problems. We consider, however, that this commitment lacked an effective vehicle for investigation and understanding of the range of complexities and ambiguities that were to be found within the driving forces for change. The scenario process enabled the participants to surface and share their individual perceptions, beliefs, values, concerns, etc., to structure these thematically, without reduction and exclusion and to make different sets of sense of the ambiguities, the conflicts and contradictions, developing a shared framework within which to see different viewpoints.
ReplyDeleteMy future scenario planning should analysis supports the use of scenario planning as a tool for establishing the limits of possibility and plausibility for ‘the future’, understanding the perceived causal relationships and exploring the limits of the critical uncertainties within the external environment prior to determination of options. As such, scenario planning is a process-oriented tool that promotes dissenting opinion, encourages divergent thinking and does not apply selection and exclusion in search of an ultimate reason, a unity of beliefs and values within the organization. Rather, it provides a means of generating shared, causally generated understanding of plausible futures, some of which may be unfavorable to the organization and its current strategic intent.
-----------by Ximeng Li, Simon
According to Peterson,Cumming and Carpenter, “Scenario planning is a systemic method for thinking creatively about possible complex and uncertain futures.”(2003) Therefore，scenario planning does not means there is the only plan to deal with any possibilities and situations，instead， it means as many as complex and changing possibilities should be taken into consideration before the plans and solutions are set up.
ReplyDeleteIn new oriental school, as I have stated in class, the greatest challenge in front of us is the competition of investment. In other words, before 2006, the competition of training companies was focused on the quality of teachers and their courses. However, after New Oriental School was firstly listed in the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), the competition has also been transferred to the amount of investment.
To make profit and to attract more investment are the biggest and even the only aims of a company, especially a listed company. However, in an educational organization, a great number of staff, including our CEO, do not take materialism as their first aim in lives. Also, for an educational organization, the quality of courses is still the greatest attraction to students.
Therefore, under this scenario, several contradictions are obvious:
1.The desire of staff and the aim of the company
2.Long-term and short-term profit
3.The speed of expanding and the quality of teachers and courses
4.The idealism which enables the company to develop so fast and the reality that the company has to face
How to balance all the aspects needs leaders’ wisdom and deep consideration and I will also state my opinions in my individual assignment in details. But the key point is that the aim and culture of the company should be made clear first. In other words, why the company exists in mainland China is the first and most important question worthy consideration.
Reference:
Garry D. Peterson, Graeme S. Cumming, Stephen R. Carpenter. The Journal of the Society for Conservation Biology, Vol. 17, No. 2. (2003), pp. 358-366.
--------By Jacqueline YANG